A few months ago I wrote this post on the effects of sea level rise on waterfront property and I also wrote this post on the effects of king tides.
Well, along the way, as is usually the case for me, I got the answer to one question which led me to the next one. In this case I noted a difference between the actual high tide level and the predicted high tide level for a “king tide” on that day at the Lake Worth Pier. I found the answer to it and posted in in this blog. In doing so THIS TERRIFIC PAPER on the projected sea rise level was sent to me. Prepare to be shocked!!!
“In the short term, sea level rise is projected to be 6 to 10 inches by 2030 and 14 to 26 inches by 2060 (above the 1992 mean sea level). In the long term, sea level rise is projected to be 31 to 61 inches by 2100. For critical infrastructure projects with design lives in excess of 50 years, use of the upper curve is recommended with planning values of 34 inches in 2060 and 81 inches in 2100. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2015) has reported the average global sea level has risen almost 3 inches between 1992 and 2015 based on satellite measurements. Sea level rise in South Florida has been of similar magnitude over the same period (NOAA, 2015) but is anticipated to outpace the global average due to ongoing variations in the Florida Currents and Gulf Stream.”
At the Lake Worth Pier the MHW is given as 2.88′ and the elevation of the reference disk at this location is 2.51′ by the 1988 NAVD datum. Thus, and I checked this with NOAA, the MHW calculates to be: 2.88′-2.51′ = 0.37ft above NAVD88 datum or zero level. The projection is for the Mean Sea Level (MSL) to be SOMEPLACE between 14″ and 26″ higher than this by 2060. So, by 2060 the Mean Sea Level is projected to be as high as 2.54′ by the NAVD 88 datum. Looking at my flood Elevation Certificate (EC) I note that my FF EL = 7.5′ (NAVD 88). And we are seeing higher “King Tides” which are routinely ABOUT 1′ higher than the mean high higher water however lately they have been nearly 2′ higher because of CLICK HERE!
Bottom line here is that by 2060 the normal high tide could be as bad as the worse than normal king tides we have been experiencing as of late (fall of 2019) with water levels as high as 2.5′ by the NAVD 88 datum as the new “normal” tide.
