International migration is projected to surpass natural increase (births minus deaths) as the principal driver of U.S. population growth by the middle of this century, according to three new series of population projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
If true, it will mark the first time that natural increase wasn’t the leading cause of population growth since at least 1850, when the census began collecting information about residents’ country of birth. The shift is projected to occur between 2027 and 2038, depending on the future level of international migration.
“This projected milestone reflects the mix of our nation’s declining fertility rates, the aging of the baby boomer population and continued immigration,” says Thomas Mesenbourg, the Census Bureau’s senior adviser.
A number of variables could impact an upswing in international immigration, however.
“Projections of international migration are challenging to produce, because it is difficult to anticipate future social, political and economic conditions and how they may influence migration into or out of the United States,” says Census Bureau demographer Jennifer Ortman. “Developing this range of alternative projections shows how differing levels of net international migration alter the pace at which the U.S. population grows, ages, and diversifies.”
To compensate for unanticipated changes, the Census Bureau developed three possible ways the population could grow, though in general, higher international migration would mean a faster-growing, more diverse and younger U.S. population.
The low estimate would increase annual levels of net international migration slightly from 702,000 in 2012, to 824,000 in 2060.
The high series would increase net international migration from 747,000 in 2012 to 1.6 million by 2060.
The final series projects a constant level of net international migration of 725,000 throughout the 2012-2060 period.
The high series projects that the minority population – all people except for those that are non-Hispanic, single-race white – would climb from 37 percent of the total in 2012 to 58.8 percent in 2060. In contrast, the U.S. minority population would reach 55.9 percent in the low series.
The Asian population, 5.1 percent of the total in 2012, would reach 7.3 percent in 2060 in the low series and 9 percent in the high series.
Similarly, the Hispanic population was 17 percent of the total in 2012 and is projected to reach 29.9 percent in 2060 in the low series and 31.3 percent in the high series.