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Analysis: Move-up buyers shouldn’t wait

Although waiting a few years to sell a home will likely mean a higher sales price, the cost of a bigger new home will increase as well, according to an analysis by Redfin. Financially, it makes more sense to capture today’s relatively low prices on the more expensive home.

Additionally, interest rates are still near record lows, but they’ll almost certainly rise over time, which means a higher monthly mortgage payment. In the next 12 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to rise to 4.4 percent. Over a longer period, they are likely to be even higher, considering a 20-year U.S. average mortgage rate of about 6.5 percent.

The rationale for moving up now is fairly simple. A $100,000 home that appreciates 10 percent in one year would net a home seller an additional $10,000. But if that owner hopes to move into a home worth $200,000, the increased cost of the home one year from now, at the same 10 percent, would be $20,000 more.

Chris Ryder

The announcement below affects botht eh QE 2 and QE 3 programs.  QE 3 is the purchase of Fannie/Freddie mortage backed securities.

The US Federal Reserve affirmed its supportive bond-buying programme and said the US economy has returned to “moderate” growth after a “pause” at the end of last year. The Federal Open Market Committee statement said US fiscal policy was somewhat more restrictive and noted some signs of improvement in the jobs market. The FOMC also said it “will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs” of its $85bn of bond purchases each month.

U.S. housing starts rise, permits at 4 ½-year high

U.S. builders started more houses and apartments in February, while requesting permits for future construction at the fastest pace in 4 ½ years. The increases point to a housing recovery that is gaining strength.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that builders broke ground on homes last month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000. That’s up from 910,000 in January. And it’s the second-fastest pace since June 2008, behind December’s pace of 982,000.

Single-family home construction increased to an annual rate of 618,000, the most in 4 ½ years. Apartment construction also ticked up, to 285,000.

The gains are likely to grow even faster in the coming months. Building permits, a sign of future construction, increased 4.6 percent to 946,000. That was also the most since June 2008, just a few months into the Great Recession.

The U.S. housing market is recovering after stagnating for roughly five years. Steady job gains and near-record-low mortgage rates have encouraged more people to buy.

In addition, more people are seeking their own homes after doubling up with friends and relatives in the recession. That’s leading to greater demand for apartments and single-family homes to rent.

Still, the supply of available homes for sale remains low. That has helped push up home prices. They rose nearly 10 percent in January compared with 12 months earlier, according to CoreLogic, the biggest increase in nearly seven years.

The number of previously occupied homes for sale has fallen to its lowest level in 13 years. And the pace of foreclosures, while still rising in some states, has slowed sharply on a national basis. That means fewer low-priced foreclosed homes are being dumped on the market.

Those trends, and the likelihood of further price gains, have led builders to step up construction. Last year, builders broke ground on the most homes in four years.

Homebuilders have become much more confident over the past year. But in March, a measure of home builder confidence fell for the second straight month over concerns that demand for new homes is exceeding supplies of land, building materials and workers. In the short term, that could slow sales.

But the survey noted that the outlook for sales over the next six months rose to its highest level in more than six years.

Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to statistics from the homebuilders.

 

Hard-hit Sun Belt starting to bounce back

ORLANDO, Fla. – March 14, 2013 – After years of record foreclosures and job losses, the Sun Belt is recovering some of its lost appeal as the population begins to grow again in counties from Florida to Arizona.

At the same time, new ways to tap the nation’s rich supply of natural resources – from oil to gold – continue to create boom towns in some remote Western counties and parts of the Great Plains that have suffered decades of population declines.

Census county population estimates out today for July 1, 2012, show a nation in flux after a grueling economic downturn. Counties such as Arizona’s Maricopa (Phoenix), Nevada’s Clark (Las Vegas) and Florida’s Orange (Orlando) all show population gains that are once again outpacing national growth.

“Even the deepest recession since the Great Depression cannot permanently disrupt the decades-long trend of growth in the South and West,” says Robert Lang, professor of urban affairs at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. “Now that we’re several years past the recession, things are slowly getting back to where they were.”

Some of the fastest recent gains are in or near the Great Plains and Texas – regions benefiting from oil and gas drilling and processing. Texas had 11 of the 50 fastest-growing counties. In Elko, Nev., one of the fastest-growing small urban areas, gold mining is the lure.

Williams, N.D., was the fastest growing among counties with more than 10,000 people. Williston, its main city, and surrounding areas gained 9.3 percent in one year.

“Parts of the country that were given up for dead end up producing new life,” Lang says. “Technology keeps changing, so our ability to access resources changes. America’s mineral and energy abundance is the gift that keeps on giving.”

Despite glimmers of growth and rebound, the recession’s impact on birthrates is being felt in more corners of the country. Natural decrease (when deaths outnumber births) occurred in a record 1,135 counties, or more than a third, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey Institute. For the first time, two states had more deaths than births: Maine and West Virginia.

As recently as 2009, this scenario happened in just 880 counties.

Natural decreases are happening more often because there are fewer births, Johnson’s analysis shows – 4 million last year nationwide compared with a record 4.3 million before the recession.

“It is no longer an isolated phenomenon,” Johnson says. “Once natural decrease begins in a county, it is likely to recur. …%

re posted by Chris Ryder

Home is where the tax breaks are: 7 tips

WASHINGTON – March 11, 2013 – While economists and investors can debate whether buying a home is still part of the American dream, it’s undeniable that the tax code remains highly favorable to people who own instead of rent.

Whether you were a first-time buyer, a longtime homeowner who refinanced or a seller, there are a host of important deductions available.

The easiest way for a family to get more than just the standard deduction is to claim tax breaks related to a house. Charitable deductions or a smattering of health care costs might not get you above the $5,950 deduction for individuals or the $11,900 mark for married couples. But a few of these big-time breaks in housing can push you over the top and result in a much bigger refund.

The downside is no more simple tax returns since you’ll have to itemize. But the money you’ll get back makes it worthwhile.

Here are seven important tax tips for homeowners:

• Mortgage interest is your best friend. Taxpayers collectively get roughly $100 billion annually in mortgage interest breaks. If you bought a home or refinanced in the last few years, the savings are even more significant, as more than half your monthly payment goes toward interest.

• Mortgage insurance is still deductible. There were fears that the deduction for personal mortgage insurance would fall victim to fiscal fights in Washington. However, Congress left it in place. That’s a huge boon to lower-income homeowners who often can’t afford a big down payment and must pay private mortgage insurance until they have at least 20 percent equity in their homes.

• Taxes are tax deductible. It sounds odd and is frequently overlooked, but homeowners can deduct their local and state property taxes on federal tax returns. There also may be special property tax benefits for lower-income homeowners based on your state or municipality of residence, so look into further breaks specific to your community.

• Qualified renovations count. Fixing a leaky faucet or putting crown molding in the living room is not tax deductible. But there are a number of items in the tax code that allow for tax breaks and credits. A host of items covered under residential energy efficiency can provide tax relief, including new solar panels or certain water heaters. There are also deductions available for home office improvements, as well as for medically necessary changes, such as an entry ramp or a handicap-accessible bathtub.

• Unqualified renovations can count later. While that addition might not be “necessary,” the expense could be an important part of reducing your tax burden when you sell. This is especially%

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